Bitcoin goes into shock and waits for a new catalyst?

Author: Knight of the blockchain; Source: X, @BlocKnight21

Bitcoin fell by 83,000 in the Asian trading hours yesterday, directly touching the bottom line of the $83-85 million zone last week.

The central reason is...With the opening of Asian markets yesterday, Brent’s crude oil futures rose by 1.6 to $106, with a 30-year US debt yield rising to about 5.51%, and the stock market performing poorly. As the Middle East ceases to war, there is much doubt that oil prices have been raised again, and inflation concerns have rekindled.

This directly led to a high rate of return on the national debt and risk-asset pressure, leading to a simultaneous decline in pies.

In contrast, institutional data suggest that their current expectations for market development are not consistent.Data from the CTC as at 22 September show that leverage funds added 1,599 contracts to the standard CME bitcoin futures net, reaching a total of 7,953 contracts, compared with 6,354 in the previous week.

By contrast, their numbers have been reduced by 800 and their empty space by 799, so the surface size of the open is increasing, while the futures convertible at the same value as 7995 BTC per contract 5 BTC.

In the same report, the net number of asset management units increased by between 411 and 3171, with an additional 434 and only 23 being vacant.

In contrast, the CTC only counts futures and does not see whether these funds are hedged with cash or ETFs. Thus, a net increase in leverage funds cannot be directly equated to an overall view.

And...Last Friday, US spot bitcoin ETF net inflows were $134.5 million and $190.7 million on Thursday. This was a slight decline, but still net inflow, suggesting that the demand for ETF has not yet shifted to net outflows.

It is therefore more likely that the agency will now adjust its positions under macro-pressures than a collective retreat.

The blogger adds:Strategy's move provides another perspective for the market.Last night, Michael Saylor said:As of September 27th, 1665 bitcoins were purchased for $142.7 million.The average price was $85,681.

The previous week, they had just purchased 950 BTCs for $75.7 million, the first two consecutive weeks since June.

Prior to Strategy ' s sale, which resulted in a net quarterly build-up of one negative amount, there was a net increase of 1,666 BTCs during the third quarter after both purchases.

In quantitative terms, Strategy has bought back bitcoin sold this quarter and continues to increase, with 24 consecutive net growth quarters.

The total cost is approximately $63.9 billion, with an average value of $75437. At current value of about $70.7 billion, the unrealized gain is about $6.75 billion, or 10.6 per cent. This year 175,166 BTCs have been purchased.

As at 27 September, Strategy still had approximately $1 billion in general-purpose cash and $5 billion in USD Reserve.

Strategy now offers a relatively stable buyout to the market. Such purchases absorb part of the pressure when oil prices, US debt yields and macro-uncertainties suppress risky assets.

At present, Strategy holdings are close to 4 per cent of Bitcoin ' s circulation supply, and tradable chips continue to be locked and the supply side will become tighter.

But, as we said yesterday, the market is now in a tremors phase, waiting for changes in macro signals and following days with a series of data that will be published or left.